If you are a college football fan, Thanksgiving has come three weeks early.
Tonight’s slate of college football games needs no lead-in to boost the already inflated hype and importance surrounding them. (Our apologies to Troy and Lousiana-Lafayette, who also play tonight, for not including them in our conversation.) Four of the top 10 teams in the BCS Standings square off (Oklahoma-Baylor, Oregon-Stanford), and as a meaty side dish, the No. 1 and No. 13 teams butt heads two days later when Alabama takes on LSU. As our intro to our Top 25 this week, one of our pollsters, currently a staff member at a Division I FBS school, provides us with a coach’s breakdown of each of the monumental match-ups and what to watch out for when each team is on the field. In addition, college football columnist and on-air personality Lisa Horne gives her prediction on each of the games.
Rankings reflect BCS Standings.
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 6 Baylor, tonight, 7:30 PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Coach’s Breakdown: This will be the first time that much of the country really gets a chance to see Baylor’s highly explosive offense. The Bears use their incredibly wide receiver splits to put the defense in a bind. Because of their splits, it forces you to declare your defensive intentions and you’ll be forced to play a lot of man-to-man on the outside or be outnumbered in the box. The way they align really takes a lot of your ability to disguise your coverage and blitzes out of your hands. When you factor in the tempo that they use, it really forces you to be simple on defense.
On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma’s injury to fullback Trey Millard – who tore ligaments in his knee two weeks ago against Texas Tech – really hurts their offensive flexibility. Defensive calls are made based on personnel, and in general, you can confidently infer what type of formation the offense will be in based on their personnel on the field. The problem a player like Millard presents is that he was comfortable lining up as a fullback, a tight end, a running back and a receiver. So using the same personnel, the Sooners could go from what looked like a four wide receiver formation, to a two-back formation, to one that included a tight end. Without that versatility, it makes everything a lot simpler for the defense, and Baylor isn’t all about offense – their defense is also really good. If Oklahoma wants to have a chance in this game, they need to hit on some explosive plays and will need to score at least 35 points on a defense that ranks sixth in the nation in points allowed (15.9).
Lisa’s Prediction: Finally, Baylor is playing a team worth its salt. It still may not matter. Bears quarterback Bryce Petty will cement his Heisman candidacy with another passing clinic. Sooners lose this one. Baylor 35, Oklahoma 21.
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No. 3 Oregon at No. 5 Stanford, tonight, 9:00 ET, ESPN
Coach’s Breakdown: As different as the Oregon Ducks and Stanford Cardinal are, they also have plenty of things in common. Both teams are led by head coaches who replaced charismatic leaders who departed for the NFL. Both teams feature ground-based offenses led by first-year offensive coordinators. Both teams like to upset the other’s seasons: Oregon ruining Andrew Luck’s senior year in 2011 by beating the Cardinal in Palo Alto 53-30, and Stanford ruining UO’s otherwise perfect season with a 17-14 victory in Eugene last season. In last year’s game, Stanford was able to disrupt the Ducks’ explosive running game by lining up several yards off of the line of scrimmage. When running the option, there is nothing that a quarterback loves more than a defender that declares his intention. This allows the quarterback to make a quick and decisive read and forces the defender into being wrong. By lining up off of the ball, Stanford didn’t give Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota easy reads and forced him to slow-play his decisions. Along with that, the depth of the Stanford linebackers caused the Oregon offensive line to have to hurry up to the second level, which creates seams in the line blocking. The seams, plus the slow backfield decisions, allowed the Cardinal defenders to engage and shed their blockers and corral the Ducks run game.
Another reason that the Cardinal were so effective on defense was because Oregon’s passing game was mostly horizontal last year. Mariota is greatly improved this year and the offensive staff has a lot more confidence in his ability to throw the ball downfield. Stanford’s defense has been on a tear recently and has been incredibly successful at rushing and sacking the quarterback. This skill, however, will be somewhat negated in that a lot of the Oregon pass game is catch-and-throw by Mariota. He doesn’t do much in the form of drop-back concepts, and most of their explosive down-the-field passes are in the play-action game.
The key for Oregon will be to protect Mariota and give him time to throw the ball downfield. The key for Stanford, on the other hand, will be their ability to respond to the big play. UCLA played Oregon tight for three quarters but got worn down and lost its defensive discipline, so Stanford has to keep that intensity up for four quarters and not get down on themselves when Oregon hits a big play.
Lisa’s Prediction: The Ducks’ defense has improved from No. 6 in the league last year to No. 4 this year. Meanwhile, Stanford’s defense has regressed slightly, from No. 1 in the league last year to No. 3 this year. Since defense wins championships, Oregon should finally get the respect it deserves. (Do you hear me, SEC fans?). If Utah can score 27 on Stanford, Oregon should top that total. The Ducks should win this one on the road. Oregon 38, Stanford 21.
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No. 13 LSU at No. 1 Alabama, Saturday, 8:00 PM, CBS
Coach’s Breakdown: Two years after the hyped Game of the Century, and a year after a game that turned into an absolute nail-biter, the Crimson Tide host the Tigers in a game that isn’t receiving nearly the same type of media attention. While the two teams were evenly matched across the field in those match-ups, the difference maker was Alabama’s quarterback play and the comprehensive system that the Tide ran on offense. While it seemed like LSU often just ran a collection of plays, Alabama ran a simple offense that tried to find holes in the defense and exploit them. The consistent foundation of the Alabama offense has been the zone running game out of a one-back formation. When Jim McElwain was the offensive coordinator, he took advantage of H-back Brad Smelley and his versatility, moving him all around the field to create number advantages for the run game. When Doug Nussmeier became the OC, Smelley was no longer part of the program, so he’s been a bit more unorthodox in trying to create that number advantage. He isn’t afraid to use unbalanced formations, which he exhibited in the first play of the game last year.
Now the Tigers have their own system on offense, led by new coordinator Cam Cameron. One common thought is that college football is driven by scheme, while the NFL is driven by match-ups, and you can see that in Cameron’s offense. The Tigers try to create one-on-one match-ups for their star receivers – Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. – by formation and an emphasis on a physical ground game. This is where the game will be won or lost. Alabama likes to put eight men in the box with a single high safety. This stresses the Tide corners and forces them to win their one-on-one battles, with the help of pressure by the box defenders. If LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger can complete passes downfield to Landry and Beckham Jr. (like Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans did for Texas A&M against Alabama earlier this season), the Tigers have a very real shot at upsetting the Tide. If the Tide can pressure Mettenberger, it will be a long night for the Tigers.
Lisa’s Prediction: Let’s see now….Nick Saban and Les Miles have both had an extra week to prepare for this game. Which coach takes the most advantage of extra prep time? No one prepares better than Saban. Alabama 24, LSU 14.
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Now on to the A Lot Of Sports Talk College Football Top 25 rankings going into this weekend. Our pollsters this week, six in total, include: Lisa Horne (CFB/NASCAR writer and on-air personality), James Bates (former All-SEC linebacker, captain on the 1996 Florida Gators national championship team, on-air television host and color commentator for Fox Sports 1), T.J. Basalla (super fan, marketing professional, WJPZ Alumni Association President), Matty J. (ThrowTheFlagBlog.com, gifsection.com), Adesina Koiki (A Lot Of Sports Talk reporter/writer) and an anonymous staff member at a Division I-FBS school.
1. 
Alabama (149 points, 5 first-place votes)
Weird things happen to the home team during the LSU-Alabama game, at least recently. This weekend’s game is in Tuscaloosa. I’m just saying. (T.J. Basalla)
2. 
Florida State (142)
Is Jameis Winston the best quarterback with the worst eyesight in NCAA history? All that squinting won’t help the crow’s-feet around his eyes. (Anonymous D-1 FBS staffer)
3. 
Oregon (141, 1 first-place vote)
The deciding factor in whether or not Oregon or Florida State plays in the BCS Championship (assuming they are not playing each other for it) will be strength of schedule. Right now, the Seminoles have a slight edge (No. 54) over the Ducks (No. 62), per Sagarin Ratings. (Lisa Horne)
4. 
Ohio State (129)
Outside of the residents of East Lansing, the biggest fans of Michigan State might be those in Columbus, as Ohio State, if they win the Leaders Division and stay undefeated, hope to run into an 11-1 Sparty in the Big Ten title game. It’s not out of the question that Ohio State might have the chance to post the most impressive win of any team on conference championship Saturday in a month’s time. (Adesina Koiki)
5. 
Baylor (127)
Tonight is when we find out if Baylor truly is a top-five team this year. How do you know that this is a big game in Waco? The tarp is coming off. (Anonymous D-1 FBS staffer)
6. 
Stanford (120)
The winner of tonight’s Stanford-Oregon game controls its destiny in the Pac-12 North. Stanford still has a tough slate after the game while Oregon does not. You have to wonder if Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott is secretly rooting for Oregon to win and play for the BCS Championship. (Lisa)
7. 
Clemson (110)
Tajh Boyd returned to his home state of Virginia last Saturday and was nearly perfect against the Cavaliers. That makes Boyd 4-0 in his career against the Cavs and Hokies. Mack Brown gets a lot of grief for missing out on quarterbacks from the state of Texas, but the Hokies and Cavs have missed on their share of Virginians: Boyd, Russell Wilson, EJ Manuel and Kevin Hogan to name a few. (Anonymous D-1 FBS staffer)
8. 
Auburn (107)
The Tigers are 8-1 with a former University of Georgia defensive back (Nick Marshall) playing quarterback. (Anonymous D-1 FBS staffer)
9. 
Missouri (97)
Missouri was able to put the disappointment of the South Carolina game behind them and dominate the Tennessee Vols. Mizzou could be the team to upset Alabama, giving blessings to others. (Matty J.)
There may be some great news for Missouri. Quarterback James Franklin may return from his shoulder injury for the Tigers’ game at Kentucky. Perfect timing. After the Wildcats, Mizzou has a bye to get healthy for Ole Miss and Texas A&M. (Lisa)
10. 
LSU (87)
Is this where head coach Les Miles makes us all wonder why we ever doubted his genius? Again? (Lisa)
11. 
Texas A&M (85)
One of the big mysteries leading up to the end of the season will be which SEC team will be the second representative in the BCS alongside the SEC Championship Game winner. If we assume Alabama wins out, then the Aggies, if they run the table in their final three games (including match-ups at LSU and at Missouri), would put those questions to bed. (Adesina)
12. 
Fresno State (79)
Fresno State still has a perfect record, but a tricky Wyoming road trip awaits. (Lisa)
13. 
Miami, Fla. (74)
Miami was in the game against Florida State for awhile, but then the Seminoles went on and covered the 21-point spread – as noted by ESPN broadcaster Brent Musburger. We’ll probably see those two teams square off again in the ACC Championship Game since North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Clemson have basically bowed out of their respective division races. (Lisa)
T-14. 
Oklahoma (72)
So will we see the “Big Game” or “Not-so Big Game” side of Bob Stoops tonight when the Sooners play in Waco? (Adesina)
T-14. 
Oklahoma State (72)
The Cowboys only have one loss (West Virginia) but let’s face it: the entire Big 12 looks down this year. It’s not due to poor play, but due to the great loss of talent suffered by almost every Big 12 team. Remember that last year, nine of the 10 teams in the Big 12 went bowling. (Lisa)
16. 
South Carolina (65)
If there is any team in the SEC that will have a “what if?” moment more than any other during this offseason, it will be the Gamecocks, who would be in the driver’s seat in the SEC East right now if not for their surprising loss at Tennessee one month ago. (Adesina)
17. 
Michigan State (57)
The Spartans’ defense is lights out. We’ll find out how great it is in the next month with upcoming Nebraska and Northwestern road trips. (Lisa)
If not for a couple of dubious pass interference calls in South Bend that aided Notre Dame in a win against the Spartans, we would be talking about an undefeated Michigan State team and a possible match-up of undefeateds in the Big Ten title game. (Adesina)
18. 
UCLA (49)
The Bruins seemed to have regressed since their road-trip double whammy at Stanford and Oregon. UCLA leads the nation in number of penalties (75) and penalty yards-per-game average (80.63). (Lisa)
19. 
Northern Illinois (44)
After NIU (9-0) spanked UMass last Saturday before its big showdown with Ball State, the Cardinals (9-1) held up their end of the bargain yesterday by crushing Central Michigan. Wednesday’s match-up between the two squads has the potential to be one of the top 10 games – in terms of entertainment value and the championship implications involved – in the 2013 college football season. (Adesina)
20. 
UCF (36)
Do we have an upset alert this weekend in Orlando? The Knights have yet to lose a conference game in The American, but the Houston Cougars (7-1) also are undefeated in conference play and are looking to upset UCF when the teams square off Saturday night. The Cougars score over 40 points per game, but the Knights allow just a shade under 20 per game. Something has to give. (Adesina)
21. 
Louisville (34)
The Cardinals’ remaining games are against UConn, Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati. They also get one more bye week. If UCF wins out, the Knights will get the automatic BCS bowl berth due to head-to-head competition. Such is life for the Cardinals. Next year, the Cardinals enter the ACC. The fun never ends. (Lisa)
22. 
Wisconsin (23)
Gary Andersen for Big Ten Coach of the Year. (T.J.)
23. 
Arizona State (21)
Sun Devils quarterback Taylor Kelly would be the Pac-12 Player of the Year if it weren’t for some guy named Mariota. (T.J.)
24. 
Texas Tech (10)
The Red Raiders officially have a Sooner State hangover. After this week’s game vs. Kansas State, Texas Tech might start to come down with Central Texas fever, with road trips to Baylor and to Texas on Thanksgiving Day to end the season. (Adesina)
25. 
Notre Dame (7)
You can’t talk about BCS bowl game sleepers without talking about the Fighting Irish, who are currently sitting at 7-2. If Stanford defeats Oregon tonight, but then Notre Dame ends up defeating the Cardinal in Palo Alto on Nov. 30 and ends its season at 10-2, the Golden Domers would surely be in line for a BCS berth, right? (Adesina)
Others receiving votes:
North Dakota State (5 points), Texas (4), Ole Miss (3), Ball State (1)
* – To break ties, we used a three-step criteria; 1) higher number of first-place votes, 2) higher number of ballots (out of six) the teams appeared in, 3) highest single ranking by an individual pollster (e.g. if Team A and Team B are tied cumulatively and appeared in all six polls, but Team A’s highest ranking by an individual pollster was No. 7 and Team B’s highest ranking by an individual pollster was No. 9, Team A wins tiebreaker)
