My name is Adesina O. Koiki, and I’m a hypocrite. At least I’m getting that out of the way.
Why the self-scathing revelation, you may ask? Well, it has to do with TCU and Baylor and the fact that I have the Horned Frogs ranked ahead of the Bears (and by four places no less) despite Baylor’s head-to-head 61-58 victory on Oct. 11.
It has to do with the fact that many college football pundits and fans (and three of the six pollsters in this latest college football on our web site) have Baylor ranked ahead of TCU, mainly or solely based on that result between the two teams, and that makes total sense.
And it has to do with the fact that I made that same exact argument in 2011 with Boise State and Georgia, but absolutely am ignoring the head-to-head argument in this 2014 case, which may make absolutely zero sense.
In 2011, fifth-ranked Boise State, a polarizing team to many fans in respect to whether it could consistently hang with the traditional college football powers, went into the Peach State to begin its season and came away with a dominating 35-21 victory over No. 19 Georgia in Atlanta. That win marked the third straight season in which the Mountain West’s Broncos opened their year with a win over an AP Top 20 team from a power conference. Over the next two months, Boise State piled on the wins, and also piled on the pressure on the cynical fans and pollsters who may not have believed the Broncos were a national championship-worthy team.
After a second consecutive loss, to No. 12 South Carolina, Georgia also piled up the wins. Some of the wins were expected against SEC doormats, but others included impressive performances against ranked SEC teams, including a 45-7 beatdown of then No. 20 Auburn on Nov. 12. Also on Nov. 12 of that year, Boise State, by that time the No. 3 team in the AP Poll, lost to No. 24 TCU, 36-35, when a last-second field goal to save their BCS Championship Game dreams sailed wide right.
Even before that telling day, the groundswell had already begun nationally that Georgia, if given a chance to meet Boise State again, wouldn’t lose to the Broncos. I remember ESPN analyst Robert Smith, a person who I regularly disagree with, saying as much, multiple times on multiple platforms.
I was borderline apoplectic.
Georgia had their chance to beat Boise head-to-head and they didn’t!! Boise is better! Boise should be ranked higher! End of story! Doesn’t head-to-head matter??? (It’s important to point out that Boise State never was ranked behind Georgia in any of the major polls at any point that season.)
Fast forward three years, and I’m almost arguing the exact opposite as it pertains to the Horned Frogs and Bears. I saw that game, and I saw Baylor come back from 21 down in the fourth quarter to squeak by TCU on a game-ending field goal. That should be the end of discussion, but it’s only the beginning.
I agree that the Bears should rank ahead of TCU if their résumés are similar. I don’t think they are. Baylor is third in the country in scoring margin, at plus-22.1, but it just so happens TCU is second, at plus-23.2. TCU’s strength of schedule, according to Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, is No. 31, which is higher than Oregon’s (34) and trumps Baylor’s No. 66 sked, and that’s with Oklahoma and TCU included in their computation. Oh, and must we compare TCU’s non-conference win vs. a Minnesota team that went 8-4 against Baylor’s best non-conference win, which happens to be against the University at Buffalo? Hey, at least it was a road game the Bears played against the Bulls, right?
Just as important, there wasn’t anything that really separated the two teams on the field. I came away from that game thinking that, in a seven-game series, Baylor and TCU would probably need a deciding Game 7. With that playoff series analogy being referenced, what I’m essentially saying is this: does the team that wins Game 1 the better team in the series? Most times, we wouldn’t know until all the games are played. And after that TCU-Baylor clash in Waco, I still didn’t know who the better team was immediately afterward.
I know now on Dec. 5, and it’s TCU. Hands down. Score one for the hypocrites.
The A Lot of Sports Talk‘s College Football Top 25 panel, outside of yours truly, never vacillates and is firm with their opinions. Once again, here is our group of six: T.J. Basalla (super fan, marketing professional, WJPZ Alumni Association President), Pavan Sandhu Eckhart (Texas A&M graduate, Sales Rep at Ferring Pharmaceuticals in Dallas), Basil Mitchell (former TCU and Green Bay Packers RB), Sandy Weintraub (super fan, Director of Student Conduct and Community Standards at the University of Oregon), Adesina Koiki (Football Writers Association of America member/voter, A Lot Of Sports Talk editor-in-chief) and an anonymous assistant coach who once coached at a Division I-FBS school. If you have any comments and/or complaints, write them below on the Facebook window or email us at feedback@alotofsportstalk.com. We’d love to hear from you, as always.
1.
Florida State (148, five first-place votes)
Word to the wise people in Tallahassee: Of all the teams that I wouldn’t suggest getting into a early hole against, it’s Georgia Tech and their ball-control, clock-eating triple-option offense. Here’s hoping FSU does once again fall behind early to ratchet up the intrigue even more in Charlotte. (Adesina Koiki)
2. 
Alabama (141, one first-place vote*)
They’re clicking on offense now, which means this is one scary team. (T.J. Basalla)
3. 
Oregon (141)
The Ducks offense is quite simply a machine. Now they have a chance to avenge their lone loss against the Arizona tonight. (Sandy Weintraub)
4. 
TCU (130)
Although I’m in the minority, I wholeheartedly believe the Horned Frogs are the best one-loss team in America (ahead of Oregon and Alabama), even with head-to-head loss to Baylor. Sorry. (Adesina)
5. 
Baylor (126)
*Clears throat.* *Taps mic.* BAYLOR BEAT TCU! (T.J.)
6. 
Ohio State (123)
I hate degrading teams due to injuries, but you can’t lose a quarterback like J.T. Barrett and not at least consider its effect. (Sandy)
7. 
Arizona (110)
Isn’t it great to see Rich Rodriguez return Michigan to footballing glory and place them within one game from winning a conference championship? Oops, did I say Michigan? I meant Arizona! Weird, isn’t it? (Adesina)
8. 
Michigan State (108)
No team may be kicking themselves more than Michigan State. A terrible fourth quarter in Eugene and a meltdown against Ohio State is keeping this team from the Playoff. (T.J.)
9. 
Kansas State (104)
I’m sure the last thing the Wildcats would want to have happen is TCU AND Baylor both knocking them silly on their way to a Big 12 Conference co-championship. K-State also playing for a 10-win regular season. (Adesina)
10. 
Wisconsin (93)
Wisconsin, in all truth, should be undefeated. Huge lead thrown away against LSU. Losing to under .500 Northwestern. Oof! (T.J.)
11. 
Mississippi State (87*)
How would you like to be a Bulldogs fan in the offseason: Thoughts about how great of a season they had will be “balanced” by the razzing from Ole Miss fans for the next 365 days or so after the Rebels dominated the Egg Bowl. (Adesina)
12. 
Georgia Tech (87)
Can Paul Johnson’s old-school option finally be the ones to take down FSU? I say yes. (Sandy)
13. 
Missouri (75)
I saw the Tigers’ comeback win over Arkansas in person and it cemented my view that, other than Alabama, the SEC is an entirely average league in 2014. (Sandy)
14. 
Ole Miss (72)
With the way the last couple of months had gone for Ole Miss, winning the Egg Bowl in the fashion they did was the perfect way to not think too much about the “What if?” scenarios for this season. (Adesina)
15. 
UCLA (64)
Follow up an emotionally-charged victory against rival USC with an uninspired home defeat against Stanford? Yup, that pretty much sums up the Bruins’ 2014 season. (Adesina)
16. 
Clemson (47*)
If only Deshaun Watson had played from day one at quarterback and stayed healthy all season long. (Adesina)
17. 
Arizona State (47)
Another team that had a real good season, but were a couple of plays away from a truly great one. As long as Todd Graham remains coach, ASU will be a national threat for years to come. (Adesina)
18. 
Georgia (46)
What a rough 48 hours it was for Georgia last week, as they saw Missouri clinch the SEC East at the very end of the game against Arkansas, then turned around and lost to rival Georgia Tech the next day. (Adesina)
19. 
Oklahoma (42*)
There’s still a chance at a 10-win season for Oklahoma, as they need to win Bedlam then their bowl game to achieve it. Nonetheless, it still will be a disappointing campaign for Bob Stoops and Co. (Adesina)
20. 
Auburn (42)
No miracles this time around for War Eagle against Alabama last week. At least they’ll have those memories of 2013. (Adesina)
21. 
Boise State (35)
Question: If Boise State loses to Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship game, which non Power Five conference team would end up in the New Years’ Six? Any guesses?? (Adesina)
22. 
Louisville (31)
New conference, multiple quarterback changes, and yet still a chance at a 10-win season for the ‘Ville. Say what you will about Bobby Petrino as a person, but he can sure coach. (Adesina)
23. 
Utah (17)
The Utes have come a long way from that first year in the Pac-12 in 2011 when they were beyond underwhelming. I still wish their seasons ended with the “Holy War” against BYU, though. (Adesina)
24. 
LSU (12)
For a team without an established No. 1 quarterback all year long, LSU probably did as well as it could have this season. (Adesina)
25. 
Southern California (11)
It’s a good thing the Trojans had rivalry games back-to-back, as they recovered from their no-show against UCLA and pummeled Notre Dame. The Irish win makes it eight this year for “7-win Sark” in his debut season in Los Angeles. (Adesina)
Others receiving votes:
Minnesota (5 points), Nebraska (4), Duke (1), Memphis (1)
* – To break ties, we used a three-step criteria; 1) higher number of first-place votes, 2) higher number of ballots (out of six) the teams appeared in, 3) highest single ranking by an individual pollster (e.g. if Team A and Team B are tied cumulatively and appeared in all six polls, but Team A’s highest ranking by an individual pollster was No. 7 and Team B’s highest ranking by an individual pollster was No. 9, Team A wins tiebreaker)
[Cover photo (Bryce Petty/Chris Callahan) courtesy of Tom Pennington/Getty Images]
