-by Adesina O. Koiki
Follow @Koiki_Sport
The Houston Texans have won two consecutive divisions titles, but winning a third in a row would only be the tip of the iceberg this season for Texans fans. Indianapolis was far from lucky last season, and the Colts are hoping Andrew Luck doesn’t suffer a sophomore jinx. Tennessee has everything in place for a playoff run – all except at the quarterback spot? And Jacksonville hopes that fans and observers will notice a whole lot more from their team than their new logo and uniforms this season.
All that, and much more, as we preview the AFC South Division.
Houston Texans
Last season: 12-4, AFC South Champions
It’s not a make-or-break season for the two-time defending AFC South Champions…but only barely. Playoff wins in each of the past two seasons immediately were followed by disappointing losses in the Divisional Round, and Texans fans have to start wondering how long the Gary Kubiak-Matt Schaub marriage will last without a deeper playoff run. Schaub – for the third time in the last four years – played in all 16 games (remember not too long ago when he was labeled as “injury prone”) and produced another 4,000-yard year and threw 22 touchdowns. Despite those gaudy numbers, he only tossed one TD in the last four weeks of the season, which saw Houston go 1-3 and miss out on a first-round bye.
Schaub’s yardage total is made all the more impressive because of the lack of receiving depth on the outside. Andre Johnson had another spectacular season (112 catches, 1,598 yards), but only four touchdowns to show for all that production. A bigger concern is who will be on the other side of him. Kevin Walter left via free agency, so the wide receiver not named Andre Johnson with the most catches from 2012 that is still on the roster is Keshawn Martin (10 catches) and the receiver with the most yards – sans Johnson – is Lestar Jean (151 yards). The hope is that rookie first-round pick DeAndre Hopkins steps into that role and frees things up for the passing game, and early reports are is that he is well ahead of that plan. It only will open things up for the zone-blocking rushing attack the Texans have bludgeoned teams with the past few seasons. Arian Foster isn’t 100 percent, but whether it’s he or Ben Tate toting the rock, Houston’s run game should be just as lethal.
Lethal was exactly what J.J. Watt was in winning defensive player of the year (20.5 sacks, 16 passes defended). Adding a healthy Brian Cushing – coming off an ACL tear early last season – only should make things better for Wade Phillips’ defense. Will it be good enough to make the conference title game? Or beyond?
Prediction: 11-5
Indianapolis Colts
Last season: 11-5, AFC Wild Card
On October 14, while on location in Landover, MD, I went online to watch the Indianapolis Colts – fresh off an emotional win over the Green Bay Packers in the first game after head coach Chuck Pagano left the team to undergo cancer treatment – play against the New York Jets. After a 35-9 drubbing at the hands of Gang Green, I said that the time for the Colts is coming, but not right now.
Nine wins out of 11 after that Jets debacle to close the season and their time had arrived, but much sooner than expected. Andrew Luck was everything and then some as a rookie sensation signal-caller, not only putting up the most passing yards ever by a rookie (4,374) but leading four fourth-quarter comebacks in leading the Colts to the playoffs in the first official season A.P. (after Peyton). He and Reggie Wayne formed a lethal duo reminiscent of the halcyon days with Manning under center, and T.Y. Hilton’s explosiveness gave Indy a lethal one-two punch on the outside.
But inside of Luck’s numbers lie some legitimate concerns going into 2013. His completion percentage was closer to 50 percent than 60 (54.1). Even more alarming, of all the players with at least 10 rushes on the team, Luck led the Colts in yards per carry, and that was only at a 4.1 clip. Less passes and more ball control is the order of the day, but can Vick Ballard (3.9 ypc in 2012) or free-agent pickup Ahmad Bradshaw – talented, tough, but oft-injured – carry the mail?
The Colts defense was the biggest beneficiary of Luck’s come-from-behind wins, as the D was somewhere between mediocre and sieve-like. Only the Saints – they of the statistically worst defense in NFL history in terms of yards allowed – gave up more yards per play than the Colts (6.0). Drafting Florida State defensive end Björn Werner will bring some bite to the pass rush and ease everything else on the back end…hopefully.
Pagano returns as coach, although without offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who took the Arizona head coaching spot. New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton – Luck’s offensive coordinator at Stanford – joins the staff to make sure Luck does not have a sophomore slump. But it won’t be as easy as most people are imagining.
Prediction: 8-8
[More AFC South: Audio Interview with Texans OL Duane Brown]
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season: 2-14, no postseason
A new general manager (David Caldwell), a new head coach (former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley), and the same quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) makes for interesting happenings for the Jaguars in their rebuilding project in 2013. When Caldwell, in his first big decision for the Jags, decided not to take a quarterback in the first round of this year’s draft, he committed himself to Gabbert (or Chad Henne) for this season. Gabbert has really only found struggles in his first two seasons in the NFL, and this season does not point in the direction of a positive turnaround. Henne took over midway through the season last year, and although the losing continued, the team always looked more of an offensive threat with the Michigan man under center.
Highlighting the controversy under center is this statistic from 2012; Henne completed only four more passes on the year than Gabbert (166 to 162) but threw for over 400 yards more than Blaine (2,084 to 1,662). It won’t help whoever wins the QB battle that second-year wideout Justin Blackmon – who caught five or more passes in six of the team’s last seven games – will sit out the first four games this season after violation the league’s substance-abuse policy. That means Cecil Shorts, who was a revelation on the outside along with Blackmon, will get more targets. The Mount Union product consistently made big plays and was tied for second in the entire NFL in yards per reception in 2012 (17.8).
At least Maurice Jones-Drew is back and ready to go this season after only playing in six games in 2012 before a Lisfranc injury ended his campaign. Despite the eight-man box sets that he’s sure to see on a consistent basis, Jones-Drew should be consistent enough to give the Jaguars a chance to move the ball downfield.
Defense might be a struggle once again, and the Jags don’t look to have the personnel to consistently rush the passer, even with signing former Eagle Jason Babin late last season. Without the pass rush, Jacksonville’s secondary will be in for long season, especially when having to go up against the likes of Matt Schaub (twice), Andrew Luck (twice), Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Peyton Manning this season. OUCH!
Prediction: 3-13
Tennessee Titans
Last season: 6-10, no postseason
The Titans did everything in the offseason to make sure there is more than enough support around Jake Locker to succeed, with the main focus being to bolster the offensive line and give Chris Johnson an able backup at running back. The fate of the 2013 Titans season will now fall squarely on the (surgically repaired) right shoulder of the third-year quarterback.
To help protect Locker – as well as blast holes for the running game – Tennessee drafted Alabama guard Chance Warmack with the tenth overall pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, who became only the second guard selected in the top 10 of the draft since 1997 (the other was Stanford’s Jonathan Cooper, selected three spots immediately before Warmack by Arizona). Warmack was the best of a stellar Alabama offensive line that led the way to back-to-back national titles, and has impressed early on in camp. The Titans also signed former Bills guard Andy Levitre to a six-year, $46.8 million deal.
Probably one of the most underrated signings of the offseason was the Titans nabbing running back Shonn Greene, formerly of the New York Jets. Greene was not necessarily the No. 1 back the Jets had hoped he’d become last season (1,063 yards, 3.9 ypc in 2012), but he was at his very best in New York as the punishing closer as the No. 2 back behind Thomas Jones, then LaDainian Tomlinson, when the Jets made back-to-back AFC title games. This should only serve to take some pressure off of CJ2K (Johnson), who has still put up decent numbers but nowhere near his 2,006-yard outburst of 2009. A replay of the 2008 Titans, when Johnson was part of a lethal tandem with LenDale White (and the Titans went 13-3 that year) would be more than welcomed in the Music City. As an aside, when was the last time you saw/heard the name of LenDale White??
At the end of it all, Locker is the man that has to come through if the Titans are serious about a playoff/division title run. The big question about him out of college was his accuracy, and that still needs to improve (56.4 comp. %, 10 TD, 11 INT in 2012). His athleticism will help him out a great deal, but he has to be able to get the ball to talented receivers Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Kendall Wright more consistently, and that will happen only when he gets better at reading defenses. Oh, and he has to stay healthy, of course (which he says he is, following offseason shoulder surgery).
Will Locker make that quantum leap and lead Tennessee to a promising 2013? You can tell my answer to that question with my record prediction.
Prediction: 10-6
