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2013 NFC South Primer/Predictions

Cam Newton (r.) and Steve Smith have shared many moments – both good and not-so-good – on the football field for a Panthers team that has the goods to be a threat in 2013 (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

by Adesina O. Koiki

The title of “NFL’s toughest division” gets passed around about once every two or three seasons, and by the end of this season, the NFC South might very well be holding that baton while running the anchor leg like Usain Bolt.  Since the league’s latest realignment occurred before the 2002 season, the NFC South is the only division that has yet to have a division champion repeat as such the following season.  Will the Atlanta Falcons – last year’s division Champions – be the first to buck that trend in 2013?  Here are my predictions on how the division will shake out.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Last season: 13-3, NFC South Champions

 

A franchise that did not post back-to-back winning seasons during its first 42 years of existence now has five consecutive such seasons, and this campaign, to most Falcons fans, is expected to end with a trip to MetLife Stadium in February.

Of course, each of those winning seasons since 2008 –and the reason for such high expectations for this season – occurred since the beginning of the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan era.  Though understated, Smith might have gotten more out of his team than any coach in the league since his hiring.  Ryan, drafted No. 1 in 2008, has been nothing short of amazing, earning his five-year, $103.75 million extension in the offseason.  He’s coming off his best season yet, throwing for over 4,700 yards and 32 TD (14 INT).

With his boundless athletic talent, Julio Jones’s 2012 season (79 rec., 1,198 yards, 10 TD) may have just been the tip of the iceberg (Chris Gray/Getty Images)

All of that adds up to a “Super Bowl or bust” feel in Atlanta, especially after last season ended with an NFC Championship game home loss to San Francisco.  It’s so much of a win-now atmosphere that the Falcons signed running back Steven Jackson from St. Louis, and Tony Gonzalez reneged on his retirement plans after last year to give it one more try at winning a Super Bowl.  Those two, along with wide receivers Roddy White and mega-star-in-the-making Julio Jones form arguably the best supporting cast for any quarterback in the NFL.

But is this a Super Bowl caliber defense?  Atlanta had a tough time pressuring the quarterback, only registering 29 sacks on the season last year (28th in the league), and the man responsible for more than a third of those sacks is now in Arizona (John Abraham, 10).  Osi Umenyiora was signed in the offseason and looks to rebound from a subpar 2012.  Despite the lack of pressure, the Falcons did register 20 picks, tied for fifth in the league, but that trend may not continue if opposing QBs are allowed time to throw consistently.

Atlanta enter this season as one of the clear favorites to win the NFC, and anything short of a Super Bowl appearance has to be considered a major disappointment.

Prediction: 9-7

 

Carolina Panthers

Last season: 7-9, no postseason

The good vibes going into the 2012 season for the Carolina Panthers – after a promising 2011 with record-breaking rookie quarterback Cam Newton – quickly dissipated in the first two months of the season, as a 1-6 start, along with the firing of long-time general manager Marty Hurney, highlighted a lost football season in Charlotte.  Despite winning its last four games to end the campaign, the season was a bitter disappointment.

A closer look at the past two seasons in Carolina may tell us –well, tells me, at least – that the Panthers are actually pretty close to being one of the best teams in the NFC.  In 2011, six of their 10 losses came by eight points or fewer, and last year, seven of their nine defeats came by six points or fewer.

Along with the close losses, another commonality between the last two seasons is the playoff-crippling start to each of them, going 1-5 (2011) and 1-6 (2012) out of the chute.

So a quick start is paramount, and Newton must carry over his play at the end of last season to start 2013.   His numbers did not match his Rookie of the Year performance of 2011, but in some categories, he took a step forward, most notably by decreasing interceptions from 17 to 12.  The running back duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have not been nearly the same since their dual 1,000-yard-rushing campaigns in 2009, but Carolina’s run game as a team is still solid, ranking in the top 10 in the league in both yards per game and yards per carry in 2012.  Guess Newton’s running ability had something to say about that, huh?

Steve Smith may be one of the oldest No. 1 receivers in the NFL (34), but still has kept up his productivity.  On defense, Luke Kuechly is a stud at middle linebacker, joining Jon Beason and Thomas Davis to form a stellar trio at linebacker.  The huge – and I mean HUGE – concern is the secondary.  The Panthers allowed 66.8 of their opponents’ passes to be caught last season, and at last check, they still have to play against Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice each.  Uh-oh!

Despite that, this is a team that is right on the doorstep of a division crown, more so than you might imagine.

Prediction: 11-5, NFC South Champions

 

New Orleans Saints

Last season: 7-9, no postseason

 

The nightmare of Bountygate over, the New Orleans Saints can finally focus fully on football this season.  The season-long suspension of head coach/offensive coordinator Sean Payton and the indefinite suspension of then defensive coordinator Greg Williams doomed the season, no matter how great Drew Brees would play.  Without Williams pulling the strings on defense, New Orleans’ “D” ended up being the worst in NFL history, in terms of yards allowed in a season (440.1 per game).

So job number one in The Bayou was addressing the defense, so enter Rob Ryan, the fiery, erstwhile Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator now entrusted with being the man at the head of the Saints’ reclamation project defensively.  With his hiring comes a new alignment, switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4, which he says fits the personnel on the defense better.  Adding to the personnel, the Saints addressed one of their biggest needs and drafted standout safety Kenny Vaccaro from the University of Texas in the first round.  It is more than possible that Vaccaro might have the biggest impact on defense than any rookie in the NFL this season.

Any improvement on defense will be a welcome sight for Drew Brees, who is making 5,000-yard passing seasons an old hat now.  The continuity will continue between Brees and his receivers, specifically Lance Moore and Marques Colston.  Most important for the Saints offense (other than Payton being back to call the plays and be on the sidelines) is the return to full health of Jimmy Graham, who battled a wrist injury almost all of last season.  When healthy, he’s the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL.

Again, Payton being back is the biggest “addition” to the Saints, not only as the head man but the offensive coordinator as well – and the offensive coordinator of arguably the best offense still in football.  A part of me won’t think that the team will pick back up where it left off at the end of the 2011 season, when they went 13-3, and that playing in this division this season is going to give them some lumps before too long.  At the same time, the combination of Brees and Payton might be the most synergistic of any QB-coach pair in the league, and that itself counts for a good number of wins.

Prediction: 10-6

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Season: 7-9, no postseason

 

 

As much news as the Buccaneers made in trading for cornerback Darrelle Revis, the best cornerback in the NFL when healthy, quarterback Josh Freeman has to be the one to pay the most dividends this season.  Last season, Freeman started off as if he was going to quickly ascend to the heights of the young, talented crop of quarterbacks in the league, throwing 21 touchdowns (compared to seven INTs) in his first 10 games as Tampa went 6-4 in that stretch and was in the middle of the playoff conversation.  The last six games of 2012 is the reason this is a make-or-break season for him in 2013, and Freeman threw for only six touchdowns and uncorked 10 interceptions in that stretch as the Bucs finished 7-9.  The fans and the team (which drafted NC State QB Mike Glennon in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL Draft) now have to wonder if Freeman is the man that will lead them to their first playoff win since Super Bowl XXXVII (37).

Two years ago, Josh Freeman led the Bucs to 10 wins. He may need a repeat performance of that in 2013 to keep a hold onto the starting QB job in the near future. (Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Freeman has the luxury of relying on top-10 players at their positions at both running back and wide receiver.  Doug Martin exploded onto the scene and rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns, making the Pro Bowl is his rookie season.  On the outside, Vincent Jackson put his checkered past while at San Diego aside to haul in 72 catches while leading the entire league in yards per reception (19.2).  Mike Williams makes for a more than adequate No. 2 receiver, as he was just four yards shy of a 1,000-yard season receiving in 2012.

In other words, the Bucs offense – at least talent-wise – can go toe-to-toe with the best of the division, including Atlanta and New Orleans.  Stopping those offenses defensively is a vastly different story, hence why Tampa doubled down to get Revis, the people’s 2009 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, in the offseason.  (Anyone who thought Charles Woodson, the actual winner of that award in 2009, was actually the best defensive player that year must have been living under a rock).  Revis is coming off a torn ACL during Week 2 of last season, but he’s expected back in the lineup to start Week 1 (at the New York Jets no less).  Not only did the Bucs pick up Revis to help the secondary, they also signed All-Pro safety Dashon Goldson away from San Francisco.  Questions about if the defense can consistently rush the quarterback still remain (30th in NFL in sacks in 2012 with 27).

Tampa might be a better team on paper going into this season than last, but still might end up having a worse record.  That’s what I’m predicting will happen in 2013.

Prediction: 5-11

 

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