Pleasing NFL fans, eternal pessimists and mathletes everywhere, we present to you the Tuesday 10-spot from Week 9 in the National Football League.
1. Get better soon John Fox and Gary Kubiak.
Denver Broncos head coach John Fox underwent heart surgery to replace his aortic valve after collapsing on a golf course in North Carolina during the team’s bye week while Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed on the field at halftime of the Colts-Texans game after what doctors have determined as a mini-stroke. Both are reported to be resting comfortably in the hospital, and we wish them speedy and successful recoveries.
2. Score one for the believers in the Bellman Equation.
What is the Bellman Equation exactly, you ask? In short, it is used in economics and math to help simplify dynamic long-term problems into the immediate payoff and the future ramifications of the situation. To apply it to football, are you better off, on average, going for it on fourth downs much more often even if those specific situations – as well as conventional wisdom – call for a punt or a field goal. In last night’s Bears-Packers game, Chicago, holding on to a four-point lead, faced a fourth-and-inches (literally, just one inch to go) from its own 32 with 7:50 remaining. Initially sending out the punt team, the Bears called a timeout – and in doing so, decided to put the Bellman Equation into use. Chicago put its offense back out on the field, and Matt Forte got the first down with a three-yard run. The Bears ended up running 14 more plays on the drive while taking almost another seven minutes off the clock, and when Robbie Gould kicked a field goal to give the Bears a 27-20 lead, only 50 seconds remained and the Packers were done for. It is not always the case, but the reward of the fourth-down gamble on Monday proved to outweigh the risk. Mathematicians and economists rejoice.
3. Every NFC contender fears the Green Bay Packers…but that may have changed Monday night.
As well as the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers – the two teams widely regarded as the two best in the NFC – have played recently, the team that comes with the fear factor when January nears is the Green Bay Packers. That’s due to the play of Aaron Rodgers, who now will be out for a undetermined amount of time due to a fractured collarbone suffered in the first quarter of Monday night’s loss to the Chicago Bears. The injury bug has bitten the Packers in terms of losing impact players (Clay Matthews, Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb, et al.) more than any other team in the NFL, but as long as it stayed away from Rodgers, the Packers always have more than just a puncher’s chance in every game against anyone. No amount of stellar play from running back Eddie Lacy – who has looked like a star in the making in the past few weeks – can hide the fact Green Bay is not a factor long-term unless Rodgers is healthy.
4. “Ground and Pound” is back in New York.
The formula for the Jets’ success in 2009 and 2010 is alive and well in 2013: a punishing run game, an intimidating defense and – sadly, if you are a Jets fan – spotty quarterback play. But no Jets fan is complaining now after Gang Green stopped the New Orleans Saints 26-20 to improve to 5-4 and having put themselves in a playoff position heading into the bye. Yes, Geno Smith only completed eight passes, but he did run for a touchdown and did not put the Jets in bad spots. That’s all the team needs when running back Chris Ivory, a former Saint, invokes memories of Thomas Jones with his 139-yard performance on the ground as well as the Jets defense confusing Drew Brees from the second quarter on. This is far from a Super bowl contender as we speak, but the evidence is there that if this team, with this style, heads into the playoffs, they won’t be an easy out at all.
5. Move over Peyton Manning! Make room for…Nick Foles?
Both Peyton Manning and Nick Foles have tied an NFL record this season by throwing seven touchdown passes in a game, with Foles pulling it off on Sunday in Oakland. Keeping with the theme of the record, some of the quarterbacks that have set the mark are Hall-of-Famers (Sid Luckman, George Blanda, Y.A. Tittle) while others are mostly footnotes in NFL history (Adrian Burk, Joe Kapp). We know which category Manning falls under, and Eagles fans can only pray the same holds true for Foles, as unlikely as that seems.
6. New regime, same old San Diego Chargers.
I thought the days of head-scratching losses were gone in Mission Valley when the Norv Turner/A.J. Smith era ended last season. San Diego’s 30-24 overtime loss to the Redskins might be the pick of the lot in terms of the games in which the Chargers have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The scenario was perfect for the Bolts to steal a road victory: 21 seconds remaining, down by three points with the ball one yard away from the end zone and two timeouts at their disposal. Three plays – including two curious pass calls – gained nothing, and San Diego settled for the tying field goal to force overtime. That happened to be the last time the Chargers touched the football, as Washington won the coin toss and scored a touchdown on the opening possession to end the game. Included in San Diego’s four losses in 2013 is a season-opening home loss to Houston in which it blew a 28-7 lead and blowing a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter in Tennessee. Add this game in Washington to that list, and new head coach Mike McCoy knows now what it’s like to live the roller-coaster life that is being associated with being with the Chargers franchise.
7. The Cleveland Browns have a good chance to win the AFC North.
Have you stopped laughing yet? OK, good, because this is more realistic than you think. After the new Browns snapped an 11-game losing streak against the old Browns (a.k.a. the Baltimore Ravens) with a 24-18 victory on Sunday, Cleveland improved to 4-5 heading into the bye – two games behind the Cincinnati Bengals for first place in the division. And as luck would have it, the Browns not only face Cincinnati on the road coming out of the bye, but Cleveland has already defeated Cincinnati, handing the Bengals their worst loss of the season in a 17-6 win in Week 4. If Cleveland wins the rematch in The Jungle, not only will the Browns be only a game back in the loss column for first place, but they would own the tiebreaker against the Bengals due to a season sweep. Even more encouraging, the Browns next two games after that would be at home against conference bottom-feeders Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. Optimism is usually a dirty word when it comes to the Browns, but everything is in place for a division-title run…umm, I think.
8. Get ready for a whole lot of Case Keenum jerseys to be sold in Houston.
Yes, the Texans fell to 2-6 with their loss to Indianapolis, effectively ending their chances at a division title – and possibly a playoff berth – but local legend Case Keenum absolutely lit it up at quarterback. The University of Houston product threw for 354 yards and three touchdowns (and no INTs) as the Texans looked poised for a prime-time, season-salvaging win after 30 minutes. In two games this season, Keenum has thrown four touchdowns without a pick, and his yards per attempt average is 10.53. (To put that in perspective, the league leader in YPA among qualifiers, Aaron Rodgers, has a YPA of 8.84.) Surely there will be tougher days ahead for Keenum, but the questions at quarterback in H-Town have been put to rest for now.
9. What does out-gaining your opponent by almost the length of three football fields get you in 2013?
If you’re the Buffalo Bills, it gets you a big, fat, season-demoralizing ‘L,’ despite the fact the Bills outgained the Kansas City Chiefs 470-210 in their 23-13 loss. The hallmark of the Chiefs in 2013 came to the fore again: play smart, no mistakes and let the defense make game-changing plays. On Sunday, the Chiefs did not commit a turnover, forced three turnovers of their own and turned two of those into touchdowns on the same play, including a Sean Smith 100-yard interception return which turned a possible 17-3 lead for the Bills into a 10-10 tie.
10. Get better soon Jonathan Martin.
No matter the workplace and the archetypes associated with it, bullying is bullying, and for Jonathan Martin to be able to not succumb to the supposed way to handle harassment and abuse in an NFL locker room could – and should – be the start of a culture change – not only in the NFL but with young athletes and young people. In terms of the two individuals centrally involved, we should concentrate more on the man who was composed enough to absorb the abuse take a stand the right way and less on the abuser who has proven to be nothing more than a racist, out-of-control miscreant – who also needs counseling, mind you, if he wants it and believes it will help deal with his past. Having friends with direct ties to the Miami Dolphins organization, I can only hope for the best with what is sure to become a circus in South Florida from now until the end of the season and maybe beyond.
