Before we get started with my picks, a weather update is in order. The rain had been falling through Friday night prior to the big race, but the skies are looking good so far today and the track maintenance crew will work their best to squeeze the water out of the surface. The changing of the track will certainly affect some runners. I think it (the track) may be labeled “good” at post time. Good means wet, but drying out. It can be sluggish, kind of like peanut butter. If the New York Racing Association (NYRA) labels it “fast,” then that would almost obviously be a stretch. The track took on almost three inches of rain in the last 48 hours, and would be anything bust fast.
While Orb ran a huge race in the sloppy strip at Churchill Downs five weeks ago, I am not so sure it will suit him in the Belmont. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, doesn’t normally squeeze three super-demanding races like the Triple Crown series into such a short span without letting his horse rest and recover. With that said, I still think Orb is a talented colt and will be in the mix. But I like to take a shot against the favorites.
My selections:
First: #6 Incognito– Impeccably bred colt that has a sneaky trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin, who is absolutely in love with this horse. Even though he flopped in the mud in the Peter Pan Stakes last month (finished fifth), he is bred to love the kind of track he will see. His pedigree screams out for the 1-1/2 mile muddy test he will face. He is a grandson of the great Seattle Slew, who won the Belmont with ease on his way to the Triple Crown in 1977. The pick! And his odds could be as high as 30-1!
Second: #7 Oxbow– That race he ran in the Preakness is exactly the kind of sluggish-paced race that often translates into a Belmont victory in recent years. He ran fast early in the Kentucky Derby and faded in the final furlongs, but held on well to finish sixth. If he can secure a position near the lead, and cruise comfortably like he did in the Preakness, then he might threaten to win. But his breeding seems to not bode well for this demanding distance.
Third: #13 Unlimited Budget– Yes, a filly. She is a monster and would have been my pick on a fast track. I don’t care if the sun comes out at 8 A.M. on Saturday, the track will not be fast at post time. She has some experience on a wet track, but this will be the toughest race of her young career. Keep an eye on her in the fall, when she faces members of her own gender. (Side note: her rider is Rosie Napravnik, a woman who can ride with the best of them, and, when the Belmont Stakes begins, will become the first woman to ride in all three jewels of the Triple Crown in the same year. So maybe the racing gods have their own plan for this duo)
Fourth: #5 Orb– Yes, Orb. He will probably be a factor late in the race, but I really feel that his spring campaign has taken its toll on him. He didn’t look comfortable in the Preakness and still ran well, but not well enough. We will see him again in August.
Best of luck!
-Michael A. Riley
**For a general overview and history lesson of the Belmont Stakes, read An Introduction to the Belmont Stakes.
