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Handicapping the 2013 Kentucky Derby

Michael Riley’s selections:

Itsmyluckyday, winning the Holy Bull Stakes

#12-Itsmyluckyday (Current Odds: 9/1)-  This colt ran the most visually impressive race during the winter meet at Gulfstream Park, winning the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. Finished second to Orb in The Florida Derby, but came out in great shape. The trainer, Eddie Plesa, Jr., is as cool as a cucmuber and can’t contain his confidence. The colt jogged 2 miles this week and didn’t break a sweat. The pick.

#8-Goldencents (Current Odds: 7/1)-   Owned by a partnership that includes University of Louisville men’s basketball coach Rick Pitino, he ran the fastest prep race of all when winning the Santa Anita Derby last month and will probably be a value at somewhere around 8/1.  A win by the horse will be even more historic, as its jockey, Kevin Krigger, looks to become the first African-American to win the Derby since Jimmy Winkfield won consecutive Derbys in 1901 and 1902.  But I feel he (Goldencents) will toil at the demanding 1-1/4 mile distance of The Derby.

#16-Orb: (Current odds: 7/1)-  Beautiful colt who defeated Itsmyluckyday in Florida just over a month ago.  Looks like the real deal. The trainer, Shug McGaughey, has won virtually every race except this one. Might be the most talented colt of the group but needs everything to break his way in this race

Longshot: #1 Black Onyx:  (Current odds: scratched from race)-  A shame that he was became a casualty, because he’s a stunning colt.  He looks like a champion.  Unfortunately, he would have broken from the dreaded 1 post if he raced.  Horses would be coming at him for the first one quarter of a mile while their riders try to secure a path near the rail.  If he had managed to survive that, I think he would have shocked people when he neared the wire at odds of 50-1.  Would have throw two dollars on him regardless.

*For Michael’s thoughts on what makes the Kentucky Derby so special, head to the Kentucky Derby Prologue story.

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