close
OtherSlider

Handicapping the 2013 Preakness

Trainer Bob Baffert looking for his first Triple Crown race win since the 2010 Preakness (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

While the Kentucky Derby provided the racing world with a thrill as Orb looks to reach the elite status as the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, I see things a little differently.

My selections:

#9- Itsmyluckday:  I selected him to win the Derby two weeks ago, but the sloppy track and the massive field of horses did not allow him to run his best race (finished 15th).   He won at Gulfstream Park in January in what I believe was the most impressive display any of these horses showed leading up to the Run for the Roses.   He will be sent postward at around 10-1 and deserves a win wager.   The trainer, Eddie Plesa Jr., quietly wins significant races and replaced the rider from the Derby (Elvis Trujillo) with the much more experienced John Velazquez, a top rider every year.   The pick.

#1- Orb:   He won the Derby impressively.   He is well-bred.   His trainer, Shug McGaughey, is in the Hall of Fame for a reason: he has won nearly every major race in the nation and now has his first Kentucky Derby winner to boot.   However, the horse will break from the rail at Pimlico, and in my opinion, does not possess the early speed to prevent being shuffled back into the pack heading into the first turn.   Add to all that is that there is a “target” on his back, and every other rider is going to try to position themselves to defeat him.   He will be flying late and will be left with too much ground to make up turning for home in this race (which is slightly shorter than two weeks ago).   At even money, he is a great “bet-against” horse as you’ll wish you had him in Louisville at 5-1.

#8- Govenor Charlie:  Lightly raced colt is from the barn of the legendary Bob Baffert, who has won this race a few times (five) and knows how to gear up his horses for the big day.   The horse may possess extreme talent but will be struggling late against these more seasoned runners, as he only has three starts under his belt.   Should go off around 15-1, so will be a hefty price in this relatively short field.

#2- Goldencents:   He ran the “fastest” race of the Spring when he won the Santa Anita Derby in April. Unfortunately, he may be an unwilling recipient of the tactics other riders might employ when trying to move over to the rail to impede Orb, as he [Goldencents] breaks alongside Orb from the 2 post. Talented, quick, and was appropriately eased at the Derby by the rider, Kevin Krigger, to save him for this race. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a huge race, but he may have peaked too soon.

The play: $10 to win on #9 with a $2 trifecta #9 with #1 with all ($14 wager) Total wagered: $24.

Good luck!

*To read Michael’s introduction about the Preakness, its history and how the track differs from the other Triple Crown races, click on A Preakness Preamble for 2013.

 

Cover photo: AP/Garry Jones

Facebook Comments Box

Leave a Response