Back in 2008, I had the honor and privilege to cover my first NCAA Tournament in person, something that, at the time, I thought was the biggest day of my life (the heck with college graduation). Not only was it a fulfillment of a lifetime after watching countless hours of March Madness since I was five, but it also was a way from getting away from the not-so-great “spring” weather in New York City at the time.
So who was I going to watch live in person? Duke? Memphis? North Carolina? Maybe Gonzaga?
How about Drake, Western Kentucky, Siena and San Diego??
I knew I was going to be covering non-descript teams, but I was covering the part of the bracket that most people thought was going to be the snoozefest of the eight cities hosting the first round. Not only that, the city I was in happened to be Tampa, and walking outside the St. Pete Times Forum in 75-degree temperatures made me want to do anything else but cover basketball — even though I’m far from having a beach body!
Even worse, I found out the broadcasters for CBS Sports were Tim Brando and Mike Gminski — good guys, but they’re low on the CBS broadcast totem pole that producers pretty much said there would be nothing really to see here in the first two rounds.
A mere 12 hours later — and two buzzer beaters, an 18-point comeback and a dominating win by a small-budget school versus and SEC team — Tampa had made history, as the first (and only) city in which all four lower seeded teams (higher in number) won in the first round. Ty Rogers’ 30-footer for Western Kentucky vs. Drake was replayed over and over, and, if you look closely at that replay, you could see me on press row (the show was almost right in front of me).
Tampa indeed was UPSET CITY.
And it got me to thinking, “Are there cities that host the NCAA Tournament that just seem to cater to upsets?”
Because I have nothing better to do during March Madness other than sit home and crunch numbers, here’s my look at the 12 cities hosting Second/Third Round and Regional games during the 2013 NCAA Tournament. I charted all the games, and broke up games that resulted in a seed upset into two categories:
Upset Rate: a lower-seeded team (higher in number) defeats a higher-seeded team (lower in number), regardless of difference in seed.
Games between teams of the same seed (which would happen in the Final Four) did not count in my statistics, as it is noted with an asterisk.
So which cities in 2013 are cities that might lead to upsets? And which ones will most likely send you to the beach nearby the arena than the arena itself?
True Upset Rate: a lower-seeded team defeats a higher-seeded team and the difference between the seeds is at least three.
2013 Second and Third Round Sites (Thursday/Saturday):
San Jose, CA (HP Pavilion, formerly called the Compaq Center)
Upset Rate: 5-15 (33%); True upset rate: 4-11 (36%)
Notes: Not a long history of Tournament games in San Jose, but the Northern California city did produce the third-highest true upset rate. Also, a close call came in 1997, when Stanford led Utah late in the second half and Keith Van Horn fouling out of the game. The Utes, however, came back to stun Stanford in OT. As it relates to 2013, Syracuse, you’ve been warned. Playing a team based in the West Coast (Montana) and making a 2,800-plus mile trip to play the game doesn’t help either.
1997: (Regionals)
#1 Kentucky def. #4 Saint Joseph’s, 83-68
#2 Utah def. #6 Stanford, 82-77 (OT)
#1 Kentucky def. #2 Utah, 72-59
2002: (Regionals)
#12 Missouri def. #8 UCLA, 82-73
#2 Oklahoma def. #3 Arizona, 88-67
#2 Oklahoma def. #12 Missouri, 81-75
2007: (Regionals)
#1 Kansas def. #4 Southern Illinois, 61-58
#2 UCLA def. #3 Pittsburgh, 64-55
#2 UCLA def. #1 Kansas, 68-55
2010: (First/Second Round)
#13 Murray State def. #4 Vanderbilt, 66-65
#5 Butler def. #12 UTEP, 77-59
#11 Washington def. #6 Marquette, 80-78
#3 New Mexico def. #14 Montana, 62-57
#5 Butler def. #13 Murray State, 54-52
#11 Washington def. #3 New Mexico, 82-64
Salt Lake City, UT (Jon M. Huntsman Center & EnergySolutions Arena)
Upset Rate: 19-69 (28%); True Upset Rate: 16-61 (26%)
Notes: One of the go-to cities for the NCAA to hold tournament games, Salt Lake City has seen some memorable games, probably the most memorable being the 1979 national title game between Bird and Magic (err, I mean, Indiana State and Michigan State). The city produced the fifth-highest true upset rate of the 12 cities (so-so), but it did play host to the second ever No. 15 seed to beat a No. 2. More details/video on that below.
1985: (First/Second Round)
#12 Kentucky def. #5 Washington, 66-58
#4 UNLV def. #13 San Diego State, 85-80
#1 St. John’s (NY) def. Southern, 83-59
#9 Arkansas def. #8 Iowa, 63-54
#12 Kentucky def. #4 UNLV, 64-61
#1 St. John’s (NY) def. #9 Arkansas, 86-70
1987: (First/Second Round)
#1 UNLV def. #16 Idaho State, 95-70
#9 Kansas State def. #8 Georgia, 82-79 (OT)
#12 Wyoming def. #5 Virginia, 64-60
#4 UCLA def. #13 Central Michigan, 92-73
#1 UNLV def. #9 Kansas State, 80-61
#12 Wyoming def. #4 UCLA, 78-68
1988: (First/Second Round)
#6 Florida def. #11 St. John’s (NY), 62-59
#3 Michigan def. #14 Boise State, 63-58
#10 Loyola Marymount def. #7 Wyoming, 119-115
#2 North Carolina def. #15 North Texas, 83-65
#3 Michigan def. #6 Florida, 108-85
#2 North Carolina def. #10 Loyola Marymount, 123-97
1990: (First/Second Round)
#1 UNLV def. #16 Arkansas-Little Rock, 102-72
#8 Ohio State def. #9 Providence, 84-83 (OT)
#12 Ball State def. #5 Oregon State, 54-53
#4 Louisville def. #13 Idaho, 78-59
#1 UNLV def. #8 Ohio State, 76-65
#12 Ball State def. #4 Louisville, 62-60
1991: (First/Second Round)
#11 Creighton def. #6 New Mexico State, 64-56
#3 Seton Hall def. #14 Pepperdine, 71-51
#10 BYU def. #7 Virginia, 61-48
#2 Arizona def. #15 St. Francis (PA), 93-80
#3 Seton Hall def. #11 Creighton, 81-69
#2 Arizona def. #10 BYU, 76-61
1993: (First/Second Round)
#7 Temple def. #10 Missouri, 75-61
#15 Santa Clara def. #2 Arizona, 64-61 …can you spot a two-time NBA MVP in this clip?
#6 Illinois def. #11 Long Beach State, 75-72
#3 Vanderbilt def. #14 Boise State, 92-72
#7 Temple def. #15 Santa Clara, 68-57
#3 Vanderbilt def. #6 Illinois, 85-68
1995: (First/Second Round)
#11 Texas def. #6 Oregon, 90-73
#3 Maryland def. #14 Gonzaga, 87-63
#7 Cincinnati def. #10 Temple, 77-71
#2 Connecticut def. #15 Tennessee-Chattanooga, 100-71
#3 Maryland def. #11 Texas, 82-68
#2 Connecticut def. #7 Cincinnati, 96-91
1997: (First/Second Round)
#4 Saint Joseph’s def. #13 Pacific, 75-65
#5 Boston College def. #12 Valparaiso, 73-66
#1 Kentucky def. #16 Montana, 92-54
#8 Iowa def. #9 Virginia, 73-60
#4 Saint Joseph’s def. #5 Boston College, 81-77 (OT)
#1 Kentucky def. #8 Iowa, 75-69
2000: (First/Second Round)
#4 LSU def. #13 Southeast Missouri State, 64-41
#5 Texas def. #12 Indiana State, 77-61
#1 Arizona def. #16 Jackson State, 71-47
#8 Wisconsin def. #9 Fresno State, 66-56
#4 LSU def. #5 Texas, 72-67
#8 Wisconsin def. #1 Arizona, 66-59
2003: (First/Second Round)
#1 Arizona def. #16 Vermont, 80-51
#9 Gonzaga def. #8 Cincinnati, 74-69
#11 Central Michigan def. #6 Creighton, 79-73
#3 Duke def. #14 Colorado State, 67-57
#1 Arizona def. #9 Gonzaga, 96-95 (2 OT)
#3 Duke def. #11 Central Michigan, 86-80
2006: (First/Second Round)
#4 Boston College def. #13 Pacific, 88-76 (2 OT)
#12 Montana def. #5 Nevada, 87-79
#6 Indiana def. #11 San Diego State, 87-83
#3 Gonzaga def. #14 Xavier, 79-75
#4 Boston College def. #12 Montana, 69-56
#3 Gonzaga def. #6 Indiana, 90-80
2010: (Regionals; at EnergySolutions Arena)
#5 Butler def. #1 Syracuse, 63-59
#2 Kansas State def. #6 Xavier, 101-96 (2 OT)
#5 Butler def. #2 Kansas State, 63-56
Kansas City, MO (Kemper Arena & Spirit Center)
Upset Rate: 8/35 (23%); True Upset Rate: 7/29 (24%)
Notes: “I’m going to Kansas City…Kansas City here I come!” What didn’t really come to Kansas City was the upsets (tied for sixth in true upset rate), but the nearby Kansas Jayhawks did pull off a shocker and won the national title in 1988 as a No. 6 seed. In terms of 2013, Kansas State possibly playing two home games should ease what should be a tough two games at Spirit Center (vs. La Salle, winner of Wisconsin/Ole Miss).
1986: (Regionals)
#1 Kansas def. #5 Michigan State, 96-86 (OT)
#6 North Carolina State def. #7 Iowa State, 70-66
#1 Kansas def. #6 North Carolina State, 75-67
1988: (Final Four)
#6 Kansas def. #2 Duke, 66-59
#1 Oklahoma def. #1 Arizona, 86-78*
#6 Kansas def. #1 Oklahoma, 83-79…Danny (Manning) and the Miracles do in Mookie Blaylock and the Sooners to win it all.
1992: (Regionals)
#4 Cincinnati def. #9 UTEP, 69-67
#6 Memphis State def. #7 Georgia Tech, 83-79 (OT)
#4 Cincinnati def. #6 Memphis State, 88-57
1995: (Regionals)
#4 Virginia def. #1 Kansas, 67-58
#2 Arkansas def. #6 Memphis State, 96-91 (OT)
#2 Arkansas def. #4 Virginia, 68-61
1997: (First/Second Round)
#1 Minnesota def. #16 Texas State, 78-46
#9 Temple def. #8 Mississippi, 62-40
#5 Tulsa def. #12 Boston University, 81-52
#4 Clemson def. #13 Miami (OH), 68-56
#1 Minnesota def. #9 Temple, 76-57
#4 Clemson def. #5 Tulsa, 65-59
2001: (First/Second Round)
#10 Butler def. #7 Wake Forest, 79-63
#2 Arizona def. #15 Eastern Illinois, 101-76
#6 Notre Dame def. #11 Xavier, 83-71
#3 Mississippi def. #14 Iona, 72-70
#2 Arizona def. #10 Butler, 73-52
#3 Mississippi def. #6 Notre Dame, 59-56
2004: (First/Second Round)
#7 Memphis def. #10 South Carolina, 59-43
#2 Oklahoma State def. #15 Eastern Washington, 75-56
#4 Kansas def. #13 Illinois-Chicago, 78-53
#12 Pacific def. #5 Providence, 66-58
#2 Oklahoma State def. #7 Memphis, 70-53
#4 Kansas def. #12 Pacific, 78-63
2009: (First/Second Round, at Spirit Center)
#2 Memphis def. #15 Cal State Northridge, 81-70
#10 Maryland def. #7 California, 84-71
#10 Michigan def. #7 Clemson, 62-59
#2 Oklahoma def. #15 Morgan State, 82-54
#2 Memphis def. #10 Maryland, 89-70
#2 Oklahoma def. #10 Michigan, 73-63
Auburn Hills, MI (The Palace of Auburn Hills)
Upset Rate: 4-15 (27%); True Upset Rate: 4-14 (27%)
Notes: The home to the Bad Boys Pistons’ teams of the late 1980s and early 1990s was especially bad to higher-ranked teams the last time it hosted the NCAAs (2006), as three of the six games played inside resulted in true upsets.
1997: (First/Second Round)
#6 Iowa State def. #11 Illinois State, 69-57
#3 Cincinnati def. #14 Butler, 86-69
#7 Xavier def. #10 Vanderbilt, 80-68
#2 UCLA def. #15 Charleston Southern, 109-75
#6 Iowa State def. #3 Cincinnati, 67-66
#2 UCLA def. #7 Xavier, 96-83
2000: (Regionals)
#1 Michigan State def. #4 Syracuse, 75-58
#2 Iowa State def. #6 UCLA, 105-70
#1 Michigan State def. #2 Iowa State, 75-64
2006: (First/Second Round)
#14 Northwestern State def. #3 Iowa, 64-63…the Hawkeyes were my Final Four pick in my bracket from the Atlanta Regional. Oops!!
#6 West Virginia def. #11 Southern Illinois, 64-46
#5 Pittsburgh def. #12 Kent State, 79-64
#13 Bradley def. #4 Kansas, 77-73
#6 West Virginia def. #14 Northwestern State, 67-54
#13 Bradley def. #5 Pittsburgh, 72-66
2013 Regionals Sites (Thursday/Saturday):
Los Angeles, CA (L.A. Sports Arena, (un)affectionately referred to as “The Clip Joint”)
Upset Rate: 2-9 (22%); True upset rate: 0-5 (0%)
Notes: A lot of people will tell you that, despite all the glitz and glamor, Los Angeles is really a bore. In terms of NCAA Tournament upsets in the City of Angels, you might as well just stay of Rodeo Drive and steer away from the basketball if you’re looking for upsets (zero true upsets). Not that there hasn’t been a close call or two. Syracuse was close in 1994 (video below).
1988: (First/Second Round)
#1 Arizona def. #16 Cornell, 90-50
#8 Seton Hall def. #9 UTEP, 80-64
#5 Iowa def. #12 Florida State, 102-98
#4 UNLV def. Southwest Missouri State, 54-50
#1 Arizona def. #8 Seton Hall, 84-55
#5 Iowa def. #4 UNLV, 104-86
1994: (Regionals)
#1 Missouri def. #4 Syracuse, 98-88 (OT)…the closest L.A. has come to seeing a true upset. A Syracuse comeback from 10 down with 4 to go forced OT, but came up just short in the end.
#2 Arizona def. #3 Louisville, 82-70
#2 Arizona def. #1 Missouri, 92-72
Washington D.C. (Verizon Center, née MCI Center)
Upset Rate: 6/27 (22%); True Upset Rate: 6/25 (24%)
Notes: All you have to say is “George Mason!” Although tied for sixth among the 12 cities in true upset rate, no one will forget that the Patriots Cinderella run to the Final Four went through the nation’s capital. Also, Butler’s run to the second straight Final Four appearance started in D.C. So if you’re a smaller-budget school looking to make a run, visiting the Washington Monument (and then the Verizon Center) may not be a bad idea.
1998: (First/Second Round)
#14 Richmond def. #3 South Carolina, 62-61
#11 Washington def. #6 Xavier, 69-68
#7 Indiana def. #10 Oklahoma, 94-87 (OT)
#2 Connecticut def. #15 Fairleigh Dickinson, 93-85
#11 Washington def. #14 Richmond, 81-66
#2 Connecticut def. #7 Indiana, 78-68
2002: (First/Second Round)
#7 North Carolina State def. #10 Michigan State, 69-58
#2 Connecticut def. #15 Hampton, 78-67
#1 Maryland def. #16 Siena, 85-70
#8 Wisconsin def. #9 St. John’s (NY), 80-70
#2 Connecticut def. #7 North Carolina State, 77-74
#1 Maryland def. #8 Wisconsin, 87-57
2006: (Regionals)
#11 George Mason def. #7 Wichita State, 80-73
#1 Connecticut def. #5 Washington, 98-92 (OT)
#11 George Mason def. #1 Connecticut, 86-84 (OT)…”By George!!”
2008: (First/Second Round)
#3 Xavier def. #14 Georgia, 73-61
#6 Purdue def. #11 Baylor, 90-79
#7 West Virginia def. #10 Arizona, 75-65
#2 Duke def. #15 Belmont, 71-70
#3 Xavier def. #6 Purdue, 85-78
#7 West Virginia def. #2 Duke, 73-67
2011: (First/Second Round)
#8 Butler def. #9 Old Dominion, 60-58
#1 Pittsburgh def. #16 UNC-Asheville, 74-51
#6 Cincinnati def. #11 Missouri, 78-63
#3 Connecticut def. #14 Bucknell, 81-52
#8 Butler def. #1 Pittsburgh, 71-70
#3 Connecticut def. #6 Cincinnati, 69-58
