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A Preakness Preamble for 2013

Peak Performance in the Preakness for Orb?

With step one to Triple Crown glory complete, Orb and jockey Joel Rosario look to conquer Pimlico (Photo: UTATSI)

Well, it has been only one week and the world of thoroughbred racing is already commissioning an artist to build a beautiful sculpture of the next Triple Crown winner:  Orb.   This before he boarded the plane in Louisville and returned to his home at Belmont Park.

I am kidding, of course…maybe.   The racing world hasn’t seen one horse sweep these three historic races since Affirmed achieved the seemingly unattainable goal in 1978.   Oh, sure, some have tried … and failed.   Win the Kentucky Derby in Louisville, run back two weeks later in Baltimore and win the Preakness, then stroll into New York and cruise to victory in the Belmont Stakes.   Sounds simple enough, right?   In fact, the facileness of winning the Triple Crown makes it one of the greatest challenges in sports (more on the specific trials and tribulations below).   The racing gods can be cruel.   They have been (a lot) as it pertains to winning the Triple Crown for over a quarter century running.

Orb has to win The Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course, fondly nicknamed “Old Hilltop”  — for the hill that the track was built on in 1870  —  before we can even discuss his chances of winning The Triple Crown.   Yet, year after year, the racing community gets all worked up when a horse like Orb, Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (2006), or even Street Sense (2007) win the Derby.   They all want another Triple Crown winner. Who can blame them?

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Many sports historians will tell you “Triple Crown Winner” is the most difficult of all titles to obtain.   Super Bowls, World Series, Stanley Cups, and other championships have been dominated for years by teams and names whose greatness bordered on dynastic:  Patriots, Bulls, Islanders, Yankees, Manchester United, et al.   But thoroughbreds only get one chance to win the ultimate prize in their sport.   They mustbe three years old.   Only 11 horses have done it.   It is not an annual championship where a winner will be determined. It is a challenge that requires the horse to defeat all different sorts of rivals … on three different tracks … in five short weeks … and at three different distances!

Spectacular Bid (owned by the aunt and uncle of this article’s author) after winning the Preakness in 1979, following his win at the Kentucky Derby. He finished third at the Belmont.

Until they ran in the Kentucky Derby, they had never run that far in their lives.   You could possibly have all those challenges covered, and yet you will never have any control of another possible big hurdle between you and Triple Crown success:  the weather.

Let’s liken this to, say, baseball.   The New York Mets (to use my favorite team) would have to walk onto an unfamiliar field and win a nine-inning game on Day One, but let’s throw in the caveat that their opponents can bring in a whole new set of nine Major League All-Star players after every turn through their batting order.   After conquering that feat, they move on to a different stadium (with different dimensions and its own nooks and crannies) for Day Two, with the “new set of All-Star nine” rules for their opponents still in application, and having to win again.   Then not skip a beat on Day Three, in another different park (let’s make this park possess the deepest dimensions of the three) and playing with the same handicap to their opponents as Days One and Two.   If the Mets pulled off that feat, it would be a once in a lifetime achievement.

All that is to say each individual horse and jockey in each race has different qualities – e.g. a horse with good closing speed, a fast-starting horse, a jockey specializing in riding along the rail — that the eventual winner has to account for, all while being mostly squeezed into a phalanx of equine muscle going around 40 mph.   You don’t beat just one horse in one race;  you can beat eight (as in this year’s Preakness) or, sometimes, as many as 19 (usually at the Kentucky Derby).   Orb has his work cut out for him.

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But if there’s any horse that has the pedigree and the right people handling him to pull it all off, Orb might be it.   He is co-owned by two storied racing families, the Phipps and Janney families, a union that has owned the likes of Ruffian, Easy Goer (1989 Belmont Stakes winner), Inside Information (1995 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic winner) and so many other champions.   Despite that, Orb was the one that gave them their first Kentucky Derby win.

Hall of Fame trainer Claude “Shug” McGaughey III (AP)

Also, Orb is trained by a stand-up individual in Kentucky-born Claude “Shug” McGaughey. He [McGaughey] never pushes his horses too hard and, until last week, had won just about every single race except the Derby.   Another thing about Shug;  in over 30 years of training thoroughbreds, he has never had one horse test positive for a banned substance.   This in a sport where, unfortunately, it seems many trainers receive suspensions for drug violations almost weekly.   That alone is remarkable and one of the many reasons why Shug is already in National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.

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The horses still have to enter the gate on Saturday, and as that is occurring, over 100,000 loud and feisty (e.g. drunk) fans in Baltimore will greet them!   The Preakness is an annual event for the people of “Charm City,” and it seems like almost everyone attends.   Bang!   The starting gate opens and the crowd – many of them known affectionately, or derisively, as Baltimorons  —  roars!

The race is underway, and the jockeys will find out immediately it is very different from navigating the Kentucky Derby track.   The run to the first turn is shorter than at Louisville, so sometimes there is a scramble for position.   While 20 horses are allowed to run in the Derby, fourteen is the maximum usually allowed in the Preakness (nine are in this year’s field), so it isn’t a crowded field.   But on those tight Pimlico turns, no rider wants to get caught wide or shuffled back, so the goal usually is to be forwardly placed just after the start.   It is such an exciting start to a race.   Then, as the field circles into the backstretch, the race is rolling.   This track is not kind to “closers”, so expect to see Orb a little closer to the lead than the 18 lengths back he was in Louisville.   Speed is key here, and no one wins from 18 lengths back.

But Orb has shown he can be positioned just off the leaders in earlier races, as he is a sharp horse.   If he can secure a good early position under the hot-riding Joel Rosario, the immense crowd will grow even louder.   By the final turn, only a few horses will have a chance as the field tends to get strung out at this point.   Those that have that extra gear and can scamper away have won many times at Pimlico in recent years.

They can throw a Triple Crown party in Baltimore as well, thank you very much!

Should Orb have that gear and manage to be the first across the wire at Old Hilltop on Saturday evening, he will take that “Charm City” charm all the way to New York.   He will be the favorite to win the most elusive trophy in the sporting world, at least in my opinion:  The Triple Crown. It is going to be a blast.

Pour yourself a Black-Eyed Susan (the official Preakness drink), sit back and either root for Orb to march toward his place in history, or root for another horse to upset him and pay a nice price.   Baltimore, once again you will be the focus of the sports world.   May the racing gods smile upon you.

 

*For Michael’s prediction on the 2013 Preakness Stakes, click on Handicapping the 2013 Preakness.

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